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2024-25西甲新赛季于8月16日凌晨揭幕，对于彩民来说，最关注的应该是：各支球队都有了哪些变化？哪支球队更有投注价值？红彩邀请西班牙专家Borja给大家带来西甲前瞻，Borja是西甲发文600场以上的专家中盈利率最高！

1.巴塞罗那需要时间

2.毕尔巴鄂竞技踢欧战时，可以投注他们在西甲输球

3.皇家社会开局可能不错，但赛季末会表现不好

4.贝蒂斯主场值得投注，性价比高

5.阿拉维斯和马略卡值得投注，性价比高

6.塞尔塔主场不值得投注，性价比低

下面是译文和英文原文：

这是西甲联赛的又一个赛季，看起来很有希望，但也延续了最近的趋势。我相信最有趣的比赛将是争夺欧洲席位和保级。

从冠军争夺开始，我认为皇马比其他球队领先一步。上个赛季，他们已经证明了他们比巴萨强，现在有了姆巴佩，他们的差距应该会更大。他们的进攻令人印象深刻，可以说是目前欧洲最好的，他们本赛季可能会进很多球。

虽然巴塞罗那拥有西班牙最好的球员之一亚马尔，并且签下了像奥尔莫这样的好球员，但他们仍然有一些地方值得关注，比如前锋和防守。巴萨仍处于过渡时期，需要几年时间才能重返巅峰，尤其是考虑到他们目前的财政危机。这也是弗里克的第一个赛季，虽然他应该比哈维做得更好，但球队需要时间来适应新的战术并建立化学反应。

皇马上赛季在整个联赛中只输掉了一场比赛，我预计他们本赛季输掉的比赛将少于三场。他们可以很容易地再次超过90分，特别是他们的阵容深度，这也使他们能够在欧洲竞争。另一方面，如果巴塞罗那在欧洲赛场上走得更远，他们可能会在西甲苦苦挣扎，因为他们的阵容较薄，而且缺乏优质的替补球员。

马德里竞技应该可以轻松获得前三名。他们失去了莫拉塔，但签下了上赛季的第二射手索洛斯，他是一名伟大的球员，可能会带来更多像阿尔瓦雷斯这样的好球员。总的来说，我认为他们比上赛季更强大。虽然他们可以挑战冠军，但我不认为他们会超过皇马。如果马竞排在巴塞罗那之前获得第二名，也并不是太大的意外。

争夺第四名的比赛将会非常有趣。赫罗纳可能会在欧洲比赛的要求下挣扎，特别是因为他们已经失去了一半的首发球员，包括联赛最佳射手多夫比克，而替补球员也没有那么强大。我们甚至可能看到他们徘徊在降级区附近。再一次，他们将成为最具观赏性的球队之一，他们的进攻风格很强，但防守薄弱。

我认为毕尔巴鄂竞技有潜力保住第四的位置，特别是如果他们能让尼科-威廉姆斯再呆一个赛季的话。他们将再次在主场非常强大，让顶级球队很难在圣马姆萨姆斯拿分。然而，我担心他们的B队的质量，这将依赖于在三个锦标赛(杯赛，西甲和欧洲)中保持竞争力。当他们在西甲轮换时，赌他们输可能是值得的。

皇家社会、贝蒂斯和比利亚雷亚尔是应该争夺第5、6和7名的球队。我个人认为他们低于竞技，但他们都处于相似的水平。

皇家社会近年来一直在走下坡路。他们需要一个新教练和战术上的改变，因为他们已经变得太容易预测了。他们的比赛节奏缓慢，有很多犯规，而且缺少一名可靠的前锋。他们还失去了最好的后卫勒诺曼德，但没有签下替代者，而且可能会失去更多的最好的球员，米克尔梅里诺和祖比门迪，他们分别接近转会阿森纳和利物浦。没有这些球员，他们显然会比上赛季弱。皇家社会通常在赛季开始时表现良好，但在赛季结束时身体状况会有所下降，所以这是值得关注的，特别是如果他们在杯赛或欧洲赛场上取得进展。

贝蒂斯看起来比上赛季更强大。他们有一个稳固的阵容，经验丰富的球员，一个好的教练，并且签下了一些有趣的球员。他们在主场通常是可靠的，尤其是面对低级别球队时，而且与其他强队相比，他们的赔率往往更高。总的来说，他们是一支有竞争力的球队，很难被击败。

比利亚雷亚尔也将是一支非常有观赏性的球队。马塞利诺在上个赛季末加盟后，他们的进攻非常激烈，总是丢1-2球，但轻松地进3-4球。索洛斯是他们的关键球员，但现在他在马德里，比利亚雷亚尔需要找到一个好的替代者，这通常是他们在转会市场上做到的。他们的前场实力很强，但防守仍然很弱。所以，我预计他们会丢很多球(上赛季他们的防守是联盟中最差的，丢了65个球)。他们的成功将取决于他们的签约，特别是在进攻方面，但是在这样的防守下，我不认为他们能在对阵强队的比赛中得分。面对下半部分的球队，他们应该会轻松获胜，尽管他们可能会失球。

在中游排行榜上，我们将看到许多有竞争力且难以击败的球队(赫塔菲、阿拉维斯、马洛卡……)，以及其他近年来实力有所减弱但仍令人惊讶地出现在降级区的球队(瓦伦西亚、塞维利亚、塞尔塔、奥萨苏纳)。

阿拉维斯是一支非常有竞争力的球队，很难被击败。我对马略卡这个赛季的计划很感兴趣，有了来自奥萨苏纳的伟大教练(阿拉萨特)，马略卡看起来很有希望。这两支球队都是值得押注的好球队，因为他们的赔率通常都很高。

瓦伦西亚是一支受到主席糟糕管理的球队，每个赛季都在失去他们最好的球员。今年，他们比去年更弱，我相信他们可能会挣扎，接近降级区。巴拉哈教练需要再次创造奇迹。

塞维利亚雇了一个新教练，他不能说服我。他的风格是不容置疑的，专注于控球，高压逼抢，并在后场留下很多空间——这是塞维利亚的慢速后卫不适合的。虽然他们将是一支令人兴奋的球队，但我预计他们会丢很多球。他们可能需要几周甚至几个月的时间才能达到最佳水平，所以他们可能会在赛季初丢掉很多分。上赛季，球队知道如何对付这位教练(他曾在拉斯帕尔马斯执教)。新签约Saúl Ñíguez如果他能达到最佳水平，将会是一个惊人的补充。如果你问我，我会预测塞维利亚取得糟糕的成绩，教练很可能在2025年之前被解雇。

奥萨苏纳失去了他们的教练，我预计在那之后他们的表现会下降。布迪米尔上赛季表现出色，但我怀疑他能否复制这种状态。他们可能会挣扎，发现自己接近降级区。

塞尔塔有足够的实力来保级，但最近几个赛季他们已经危险地接近保级了。他们是一支不稳定的球队，很难预测，而且在主场比赛时赔率极低。

赫塔菲可能会为保级而战，因为他们没有签下任何球员，失去了许多关键球员(比如格林伍德和拉塔萨)，而且可能会失去博尔哈·马约拉尔。他们目前缺少前锋，但是他们有西甲最好的教练之一。

最后，在降级区，我看到很多球队处于类似的水平:拉斯帕尔马斯、巴列卡诺、西班牙人、巴利亚德利德、莱加内斯……后三支球队是新升级的，阵容非常弱。西班牙人可能是其中最强的，拥有更多的财政资源和一支不错的球队。然而，拉斯帕尔马斯和巴列卡诺上赛季的表现很糟糕，在看了他们的季前赛和新援之后，这种情况似乎还会继续下去。

在我看来，莱加内斯的阵容是联盟中最差的，但他们将是一支有竞争力的球队。巴利亚多利德正在处理俱乐部内部的许多问题——主席罗纳尔多想卖掉它，球迷反对教练——所以我们可以看到这支球队受到这些问题的影响，表现不佳。

对于这些球队来说，关键将是他们的主场比赛。他们都将防守，并试图放慢比赛的节奏。但在客场对阵强大的攻击型球队，如皇家马德里，亚特兰蒂斯，竞技，甚至比利亚雷亚尔，他们可能会遭受沉重的失败。

正如你所看到的，在一个顶级球队从其他球队中挖走最好球员的联赛中，建立强大的结构是至关重要的，教练变得极其重要。西甲的战术和竞争越来越激烈，尤其是在积分榜的下半部分。

总结一下我的预测：

联赛冠军:皇家马德里

前四名(欧冠):皇家马德里、马竞、巴塞罗那和竞技俱乐部。

前六名（欧罗巴）:皇家社会、贝蒂斯

第七名(欧协联):比利亚雷亚尔

降级:巴利亚多利德、莱加内斯和拉斯帕尔马斯

Borja英文原文：

Here we have another season of La Liga that looks promising but also a continuation of recent trends. I believe the most interesting battles will be for the European spots and avoiding relegation.

Starting with the title contenders, I think Real Madrid is a step ahead of the rest. Last season, they showed they are superior to Barcelona, and now with Mbappé, the gap should be even bigger. Their attack is impressive, arguably the best in Europe right now, and they are likely to score plenty of goals this season.

Although Barcelona has Lamine Yamal, who is among the best players in Spain, and made good signings like Dani Olmo, they still have some areas of concern, such as striker and defense. Barcelona is still in a transition period and will need a few more years to return to the top, especially given their ongoing financial crisis. This will also be Flick’s first season, and while he should do better than Xavi Hernández, it will take time for the team to adapt to new tactics and build chemistry.

Real Madrid only lost one game in the entire league last season, and I expect them to lose fewer than three this season. They could easily surpass 90 points again, especially with the depth of their squad, which allows them to compete in Europe as well. Barcelona, on the other hand, could struggle in La Liga if they progress far in European competitions, given their shorter squad and lack of quality replacements.

Atlético Madrid should comfortably secure a top-three finish. They lost Morata but signed last season’s second-top scorer, Sorloth, who is a great player and could lead to further good signings like Julian Alvarez. Overall, I see them as having a stronger team than last season. While they could challenge for the title, I don’t see them outpacing Real Madrid. A surprise could be to see Atlético finishing second, ahead of Barcelona.

The battle for fourth place will be really interesting. Girona will likely struggle with the demands of European competitions, especially since they’ve lost half of their starting XI, including the league’s top scorer, Dovbyk, and the replacements are not as strong. We might even see them hovering near the relegation zone. Once again, they will be one of the most entertaining teams to watch, with a very offensive style but a weak defense.

I see Athletic Bilbao as having potential to secure that fourth spot, especially if they manage to keep Nico Williams for another season. They will once again be very strong at home, making it difficult for top teams to take points at San Mamés. However, I’m concerned about the quality of their B team, which will be relied upon to stay competitive across three tournaments (Cup, Liga, and Europe). When they rotate in La Liga, it might be worth betting against them.

Real Sociedad, Betis, and Villarreal are the teams that should be fighting for the 5th, 6th, and 7th positions. I personally see them below Athletic, but they are all at a similar level.

Real Sociedad has been declining in recent years. They need a new coach and tactical changes as they’ve become too predictable. They play slow-paced games with many fouls and lack a reliable striker. They also lost their best defender, Le Normand, without signing a replacement, and could lose more of their best players, Mikel Merino and Zubimendi, who are close to moving to Arsenal and Liverpool, respectively. Without these players, they will clearly be weaker than last season. Real Sociedad usually starts the season well but fades physically towards the end, so that’s something to watch, especially if they progress in the Cup or Europe.

Betis looks stronger than last season. They have a solid squad, experienced players, a good coach, and made some interesting signings. They are usually reliable at home, especially against lower-tier teams, and they often present good betting odds compared to other strong teams. Overall, they are a competitive team and tough to beat.

Villarreal will also be a very entertaining team to watch. With Marcelino, who arrived at the end of the previous season, they were extremely offensive, always conceding 1-2 goals but scoring 3-4 easily. Sorloth was a key player for them, but now that he’s at Atlético Madrid, Villarreal will need to find a good replacement, which they usually manage to do in the transfer market. They have plenty of quality upfront but still a very weak defense. So, I expect them to concede a lot of goals (last season they had the worst defense in the league, with 65 goals conceded). Their success will depend on their signings, especially in attack, but with this defense, I don’t see them getting points against the stronger teams. Against lower-half teams, they should win comfortably, though they’ll likely concede goals.

In the mid-table, we’ll see many teams that are competitive and difficult to beat (Getafe, Alavés, Mallorca…), along with others that have weakened in recent years but would still be surprising to see in the relegation zone (Valencia, Sevilla, Celta, Osasuna).

Alavés is a very competitive team and will be difficult to beat. I’m interested in seeing Mallorca’s project this season, which looks promising with a great coach (Arrasate) coming from Osasuna. Both could be good teams to bet on, as they will often have good odds.

Valencia is a team suffering from terrible management by their president, losing their best players every season. This year, they are weaker than last, and I believe they could struggle and be near the relegation zone. Coach Baraja will need to work miracles again.

Sevilla has hired a new coach who doesn’t convince me. His style is non-negotiable, focusing on possession, high pressing, and leaving many spaces at the back—something Sevilla’s slow defenders aren’t suited for. While they will be an exciting team to watch, I expect them to concede a lot of goals. It might take weeks or even months for them to reach their best level, so they could drop many points early in the season. Last season, teams knew how to play against this coach (who was at Las Palmas). New signing Saúl Ñíguez could be an amazing addition if he reaches his best level. However, if you ask me, Sevilla will get poor results, and the coach will likely be fired before 2025.

Osasuna lost their coach, and I expect them to decline in performance after that. Budimir was fantastic last season, but I doubt he can replicate that form. They could struggle and find themselves near the relegation zone.

Celta had just enough quality to avoid relegation, but they’ve come dangerously close in recent seasons. They are an inconsistent team, difficult to predict, and often have extremely low odds when playing at home.

Getafe could be fighting relegation, as they haven’t made any signings, lost many key players (like Greenwood and Latasa), and could also lose Borja Mayoral. They currently lack strikers, but they do have one of the best coaches in La Liga.

Finally, in the relegation zone, I see many teams at a similar level: Las Palmas, Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Valladolid, Leganés… The last three are newly promoted and have very weak squads. Espanyol is probably the strongest among them, with more financial resources and a decent squad. However, Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano finished last season in terrible form, and after seeing their preseason and new signings, it seems like that will continue.

In my opinion, Leganés has the worst squad in the league, but they will be a competitive team. Valladolid is dealing with many issues within the club—president Ronaldo wants to sell it, and the fans are against the coach—so we could see a team affected by these problems and performing poorly.

For these teams, the key will be their home games. All of them will be defensive and try to slow the pace of the game. But in away games against strong attacking teams like Real Madrid, Atlético, Athletic, or even Villarreal, they could suffer heavy defeats.

As you can see, in a league where the top teams are taking the best players from the rest, it’s crucial to build strong structures, and coaches have become extremely important. La Liga is becoming increasingly tactical and competitive, especially in the lower half of the table.

To sum up, my predictions.

League winner: Real Madrid

TOP4 (Champions League): Real Madrid, Atletico, Barcelona and Athletic Club.

TOP6 (Europa League): Real Sociedad, Betis

TOP7 (Conference League): Villarreal

Relegation: Valladolid, Leganes and Las Palmas